Octavio Islas. Director de Proyecto Internet-Cátedra de Comunicación Estratégica y Cibercultura. Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Estado de México

1547 CEPAL, DESIGUALDAD EN AMÉRICA LATINA DEBILITA A LA CLASE MEDIA, Documento de la CEPAL sugiere que las sociedades con clases medias estables y consolidadas tienen democracias más sólidas, 8 de agosto de 2008

Publicado en Análisis by octavioislas en Agosto 8th, 2008

DESIGUALDAD EN AMÉRICA LATINA DEBILITA A LA CLASE MEDIA

Documento de la CEPAL sugiere que las sociedades con clases medias estables
y consolidadas tienen democracias más sólidas.

América Latina tiene una clase media más reducida que el promedio internacional. Esta sería otra consecuencia del alto nivel de desigualdad de la región y un factor negativo para el desarrollo, ya que la clase media cumple un rol económico y político clave.

La clase media se define como aquel amplio grupo de personas que no son ni pobres ni ricos dentro de una sociedad (deciles 3 a 9). En América Latina este grupo social captura en promedio el 57 por ciento del ingreso económico regional, lo que es inferior al promedio mundial, de 62 por ciento.

En el documento “La clase media y el proceso de desarrollo”, publicado en la Serie Macroeconomía del desarrollo Nº 65 de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), Andrés Solimano,  economista del organismo regional de Naciones Unidas, sostiene que las sociedades con estructuras sociales más concentradas tienen clases medias más débiles y más inestables económicamente.

En la elaboración de este estudio se utilizaron datos sobre 129 países para examinar la relación de este grupo de la población con el nivel de desarrollo económico de un país (ingreso por habitante), el grado de desigualdad de su distribución del ingreso, el tamaño del Estado, las pequeñas y medianas empresas (pymes) y el sistema democrático.

El de la clase media es un tema emergente. Tiene el potencial de superar dos ideas que definieron a los siglos XIX y XX: la creencia de que la clase obrera es el motor de cambio y  transformación social del capitalismo, liderada por Karl Marx; y la tesis de que la clase empresarial es el único segmento innovador, visionario y tomador  de riesgos, el verdadero héroe del sistema económico de mercado, de Joseph Alois Schumpeter.

Habrían al menos tres razones por las que la clase media resulta importante para el desarrollo de un país, señala Solimano: es fuente de capacidades productivas y de poder de compra y actúa como elemento estabilizador  del sistema político.

Su rol productivo se observa principalmente en las pymes, aunque es probable que empresarios y emprendedores muy exitosos asciendan a  los grupos de alto ingresos y aquellos menos exitosos puedan caer en la pobreza. También el Estado es por excelencia una fuente empleadora de personas de la clase media. Según Solimano, un Estado débil y pymes estancadas fragmentan y debilitan a este estrato socioeconómico.

En el documento se sostiene que a medida que los países crecen y aumenta el tamaño absoluto de la clase media se despierta un mercado más exigente que demanda bienes y servicios (educación, salud, vivienda, turismo y protección social, entre otros) de mejor calidad, lo que estimula avanzar hacia su perfeccionamiento.

De acuerdo al estudio, la experiencia histórica sugiere que las clases medias serían menos propensas a apoyar sistemas políticos populistas o autoritarios (aunque ambas tendencias han logrado movilizar a la clase media en ciertas coyunturas históricas). Sociedades con clases medias estables y consolidadas tienen democracias más estables.

El texto completo de “La clase media y el proceso de desarrollo”, de la Serie Macroeconomía
del desarrollo Nº 65 de la CEPAL (en inglés) se encuentra disponible siguiendo el enlace.
Para consultas, contactar a los Servicios de Información de la CEPAL.
Correo electrónico: dpisantiago@cepal.org; teléfonos: (56 2) 210 2380/2149.

1536 México, Yo influyo.com, Y en México, ¿qué pasa con el SIDA?, Mabel Salinas

Publicado en Análisis, Boletines informativos, Periodismo y ciberperiodismo, opinión pública by octavioislas en Agosto 7th, 2008

Especial
Y en México, ¿qué pasa con el SIDA?
Mabel Salinas

La XVII Conferencia Internacional sobre el SIDA que se llevará a cabo del 3 al 8 de agosto en la Ciudad de México, cuenta con la participación de más de 20 mil personas de diversas culturas.

A la inauguración, celebrada en el Auditorio Nacional, asistieron el Presidente mexicano, Felipe Calderón; el secretario general de las Naciones Unidas (ONU), Ban Ki-moon; la directora de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), Margaret Chan; y el director ejecutivo del programa Onusida, Peter Piot, entre otros.

“Cuando la lucha contra el SIDA se acerca al final de la tercera década, aún enfrentamos un enorme déficit de recursos”, dijo Ki-moon, ya que de acuerdo con cifras de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), 33 millones de personas a nivel mundial, son portadoras de VIH.

La finalidad de la conferencia es que expertos sobre el tema expongan los últimos resultados en investigaciones, estudios y descubrimientos sobre esta mortal enfermedad, así como exhibiciones, actividades y talleres de desarrollo.

Asimismo, se fomentarán estrategias para combatir la discriminación a personas contagiadas, la homofobia, y para mejorar la educación, la prevención y el acceso universal a medicamentos antirretrovirales.

De hecho, Calderón aseguró que a partir de este momento y hasta el final de su sexenio, “todos, absolutamente todos los medicamentos antirretrovirales (serán) proporcionados a los beneficiarios de manera gratuita”.

SOCIEDADES CIVILES OPINAN
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Por su parte, científicos y representantes de asociaciones civiles pidieron al subsecretario de Prevención y Promoción de la Secretaría de Salud, Mauricio Hernández, promover una educación sexual integral, que no esté ideologizada ni sea promotora de conductas de alto riesgo.

“La actual política del condón y anticonceptivos, es una respuesta simplista que no cubre la expectativa ciudadana”, advirtió Leticia González Luna, especialista en Educación de la Sexualidad y vicepresidenta de la ONG, Voz Pública.

González Luna, junto con Juan Dabdoub G., representante de Familia Mundial, y Emilia Montejano, especialista en Derecho, manifestaron que la política de salud se ha centrado más en los efectos que en las causas.

“Su costo económico y social se constata con pérdida de vidas, aumento de hogares encabezados por mujeres, explotación de niños de la calle, feminización de la pobreza y tráfico de menores y mujeres para la pornografía y prostitución”, añadió.

PROMOTORES INFILTRADOS
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Según González Luna, existen asociaciones con intereses económicos, como la empresa extranjera IPAS, la cual ha promovido el aborto en el Distrito Federal, pues proporcionaba estadísticas que demostraban la necesidad de implementar una política pública de acceso al aborto en dicha entidad.

En su página de internet, se define como una organización que promueve los derechos sexuales y reproductivos de las mujeres, pero además fabrica instrumentos para efectuar esta práctica, como aspiradores manuales y cánulas.

Asimismo, estos representantes advirtieron del peligro de que se venda misoprostol, que es una sustancia que provoca contracciones muy violentas y desangramiento en la mujer, poniendo en riesgo su vida.

Este “medicamento” se vende a través de internet en donde se recomienda que en caso de presentar hemorragia y tener que acudir al médico, es preciso omitir el consumo de la sustancia, pues está catalogado como delito.

El misoprostol fue uno de los factores que provocó la muerte a Vinaey N., la primera mujer que perdió la vida a causa de un aborto legal en el DF.

LA SITUACIÓN EN MÉXICO
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“Según datos de las Naciones Unidas, México es el segundo país con el mayor índice de casos (de enfermos de SIDA) en América Latina”, señaló González Luna, para quien el uso del preservativo y de métodos anticonceptivos no son una garantía para evitar el contagio.

También enfatizó en que los jóvenes juegan a la ruleta rusa con respecto al contagio del VIH, por lo que definió la política sexual federal como un fracaso. Un ejemplo de éxito a nivel mundial es el de Ruanda, en donde el número de infectados ha descendido.

¿La causa? Una práctica de la sexualidad basada en un método denominado: ABC, abstinencia (abstinence), fidelidad (be faithful) y, en último término, condones (condoms).

Sin embargo, su eficacia no radica en el uso del condón, el cual por sí mismo no disminuye la propagación de la enfermedad; el énfasis debe hacerse en la abstinencia y la fidelidad, que son lo recomendable.

“Las personas homosexuales representan entre el 1 y el 3 por ciento de la población (mundial), de acuerdo a los estudios realizados a nivel internacional; en EU ellos representan el 75 por ciento de los enfermos de SIDA, y en Europa el 87 por ciento”, indicó Dabdoub G.

En México, de acuerdo con la SS, la cifra es del 70 por ciento del total de los enfermos de SIDA, señaló.

NUEVA MATERIA EN EDUCACIÓN SEXUAL
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Veintinueve secretarios y ministros de Educación de América Latina, entre los que se encuentra Josefina Vásquez Mota, secretaria de Educación Pública, dialogaron sobre la educación sexual en el continente.

Estos funcionarios firmaron un acuerdo para una educación sexual integral, para lo que se capacitará a un millón de maestros, se proporcionará material didáctico, conferencias, talleres y materiales en línea.

Con esto se pretende formar a los jóvenes para que aprendan a “respetar la diversidad”, a “rechazar la discriminación en cualquiera de sus formas”, y se les preparará para el inicio de sus relaciones sexuales, conscientes para “evitar riesgos”; algo que suena muy parecido a la ideología de género.

Esto constituye una intromisión por parte del Estado en la educación que los padres dan a sus hijos, ya que ellos tienen el deber de elegir la forma en que los educan, especialmente en una cuestión tan delicada como la sexualidad.

El Estado no tiene por qué intervenir en un derecho constitucional, y menos con una educación sexista; no es lo mismo respetar las diferencias entre las personas, que aceptarlas, y estos funcionarios están apostando por la segunda opción.

Estamos hablando de un adoctrinamiento de los niños y jóvenes, mediante la educación pública; por ello, es más recomendable la implementación de una campaña de solidaridad en la que se enseñe a los niños a respetar las diferencias, pero de una forma humanista, más que sexista; a respetar, por el simple hecho de ser personas.

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COMENTARIO de Octavio Islas

Articulistas de Yo influyo.com acostumbran objetar el empleo de condones y, en general, de métodos anticonceptivos -asunto aparte-. Sin indicar cuál es la propuesta específica que proponen como política de salud ante un problema como el SIDA, satanizan el empleo del condón: La actual política del condón y anticonceptivos, es una respuesta simplista que no cubre la expectativa ciudadana”.

1534 México, Yo influyo.com, El regreso de Fox, Fernando Rodríguez Doval

Publicado en Academia, Análisis, Periodismo y ciberperiodismo, opinión pública by octavioislas en Agosto 7th, 2008
El regreso de Fox
Fernando Rodríguez Doval
martes, 05 de agosto de 2008
El sábado 26 de julio se formalizó la incorporación del ex presidente Vicente Fox a los trabajos de planeación que llevará a cabo el Partido Acción Nacional de cara a las elecciones federales del próximo año.

De Fox se han dicho y seguirán diciendo muchas cosas, pero lo cierto es que fue un buen Presidente. Sus programas sociales fueron muy exitosos, y tuvo un atinado manejo de la economía, la cual se mantuvo estable a pesar de la complicada situación internacional.

Cometió, sin duda, varios errores políticos, pero hay que tener en cuenta que fue el primer gobierno democrático después de décadas de un sistema político monolítico y autoritario, y tuvo que superar la curva de aprendizaje propia de estas situaciones; una curva de aprendizaje que, a pesar de todo, no fue especialmente costosa para el país.

En todo momento, Fox se ajustó al Estado de Derecho, fue respetuoso con la autonomía de los estados y municipios, así como de otras instituciones como el Congreso o la Suprema Corte de Justicia.

Sentó las bases para instaurar un efectivo sistema de transparencia y rendición de cuentas en la administración pública, y en todo momento garantizó y protegió las libertades públicas. Y por más que se digan cosas de manera irresponsable, lo cierto es que sus opositores no le han podido acreditar ningún delito.

Es curioso observar cómo en el extranjero se tiene una extraordinaria imagen de Vicente Fox, al que se le ve como el hombre que trajo la democracia a México. El Centro Fox, think-tank que está creando en su rancho en León, tiene convenios de colaboración con las mejores universidades del mundo, algo que no ocurriría si la figura de Fox no les fuera atractiva y si no vieran en ese proyecto una buena manera de transmitir conocimientos y experiencias de gobierno a nivel internacional.

Así las cosas, me queda claro que Vicente Fox será un activo electoral importantísimo para el PAN de cara al próximo año. Sus índices de aprobación siguen siendo muy altos entre la población, a pesar de las descalificaciones del círculo rojo. Por eso, muy pronto priístas y perredistas volverán a criticarlo apasionadamente: sin duda tendrán enfrente a un adversario durísimo de vencer y que ya les ganó en 2000 y en 2006.

Pero no debiera haber tanto problema, sobre todo para los priístas: ellos también tienen todo el derecho de utilizar a sus ex presidentes en la campaña, así que no estaría mal que sacaran a Luis Echeverría o a Carlos Salinas a pedir el voto por el tricolor…

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COMENTARIO DE OCTAVIO ISLAS

Resulta recomendable leer el artículo “Hacia el 2009, en el trampolín de la impunidad”, de los periodistas Verónica Espinosa y José Gil Olmos, publicado en el número 1657 del siempre indispensable semanario Proceso.

A diferencia los elogios y calificativos que dedica Rodríguez Doval al expresidente Vicente Fox, los periodistas de Proceso ofrecen sólidos argumentos que permiten explicar los vínculos de Fox con la organización “El Yunque”,  grupo emblemático de la ultraderecha mexicana a la que tanto benefició el presidente Fox.

Ni “El Yunque”, ni la profesora Gordillo, ni Vicente Fox salvarán al PAN de su inminente derrota en las próximas elecciones intermedias (2009).

Fox sencillamente no supo conducir la alternancia democrática, cedió a los caprichos, necedades y oportunismo de la señora Sahagún, tolerando cada una de las corruptelas de los hijos de su hoy esposa.

Los ayer “místicos del voto” en el poder se han desempeñado como incompetentes gobernantes.

De los resultados que arrojen las elecciones intermedias de 2009, inevitablemente deberán emprender la indispensable autocrítica de su desempeño como gobierno. De no modificar el rumbo, es seguro que el PRI, a través de Peña Nieto, recuperará la presidencia de la República.

El epitafio panista será: no supimos gobernar.

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1531 México, Servicio Informativo ISA, 6 de agosto de 2008, Secuestros e inseguridad pública, por Laura Itzel Castillo

Publicado en Análisis, Periodismo y ciberperiodismo, opinión pública by octavioislas en Agosto 6th, 2008

Ciudad de México, 6 de agosto de 2008
Servicio informativo núm. 498

http://serviciodenoticiasisa.blogspot.com

Sumario:

I. Riesgos de recesión larga, por Rogelio Ramírez de la O

II. Secuestros e inseguridad pública, por Laura Itzel Castillo

III. Al primer semestre de 2008, las devoluciones de impuestos a las grandes empresas fueron de 93 mil 615 millones de pesos; en cambio, la canasta básica aumentó 11%; la pérdida en el poder adquisitivo es ya de 39%, por Mario Di Costanzo

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RIESGOS DE RECESIÓN LARGA

por Rogelio Ramírez de la O

(publicado en El Universal el 6 de agosto de 200 8)

Hoy es claro que hay inflación en el mundo; por ello los bancos centrales de los países emergentes aumentan el interés, pues tienen una meta de inflación que ya fue rebasada. En contraste, la Reserva Federal estadounidense y el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) no pueden aumentar el interés tan libremente. La diferencia es que las acciones de estos bancos tienen efectos profundos en el sistema financiero mundial.

Y el sistema financiero está apenas entrando a una nueva etapa de problemas. Una muestra: Merril Lynch tuvo que obtener capital fresco vendiendo 31 mil millones de dólares de valores respaldados por hipotecas (valores de los que fue el principal creador) a sólo 22 centavos de su valor original.

El dilema para la Reserva Federal es claro. Si atiende a su mandato de controlar la inflación, aumentaría el interés. Pero si lo hace causaría aún mayores pérdidas al sistema financiero, el cierre de muchos bancos pequeños (que ya está comenzando a ocurrir) y mayor escasez de crédito. Para una economía que ya muestra debilidad, un mayor apretón de crédito podría ser letal.

Por otra parte, si intenta evitar una recesión, debe seguir inyectando liquidez para que los grandes bancos tengan crédito, aceptando a cambio carteras hipotecarias y de otros préstamos de dudoso valor. Además, el gobierno tendrá que aumentar sus apoyos a la economía familiar, por encima de los reembolsos de impuestos a los contribuyentes que ya hace, por 168 mil millones de dólares, y del paquete de apoyo a hipotecas ya aprobado de 300 mil millones.

Estas acciones hasta ahora sugieren que las autoridades estadounidenses seguirán corriendo riesgos con la inflación para evitar la recesión. Lo hacen confiadas en que la debilidad de la economía y las pérdidas de riqueza debiliten la demanda y eventualmente reduzcan los precios del petróleo y otras materias primas, contribuyendo a una menor inflación.

Pero nada garantiza que la inflación una vez desatada no cause estragos mayores, como provocar un rechazo al dólar por los inversionistas de otros países, orillando al gobierno estadounidense a intervenir cada vez más en los mercados. Hoy el secretario del Tesoro, Hank Paulson, está dispuesto a intervenir abiertamente, después del rescate de Bear Stearns que encabezó. Ha solicitado al Congreso permiso por 18 meses para dar crédito ilimitado a las dos entidades proveedoras de hipotecas y garantías hipotecarias o para invertir en ellas.

Esto hace que el escenario de recesión y riesgo inflacionario de hoy sea muy distinto y más peligroso que las dos recesiones anteriores, en 1990 y 2001. Para empezar, la coexistencia de altos aumentos de precios con una demanda débil sólo se había visto en un breve periodo durante la Gran Depresión de 1929-1939 y en la estanflación de 1974-75. En ambos casos la recuperación económica tomó mucho tiempo. México, en particular, sufrió tanto en los años 30, cuando la economía se desplomó, como en 1974-75, cuando la inflación se disparó. Ambos casos son extremos, vista la situación actual como menos apremiante al día de hoy.

Pero otros resultados económicos y otras decisiones de las autoridades están aún por ocurrir y el margen para el error humano es enorme. La Reserva Federal tratará de evitar los extremos, pero su margen de maniobra es cada vez más limitado. Como ejemplo, después de una burbuja de bienes raíces, Japón cayó en una recesión de más de 10 años, apenas en los 90.

El destino económico de México seguirá indisolublemente ligado al de Estados Unidos. Aun si EU escapa de la inflación y la recesión, su recuperación será lenta y el crecimiento de México muy limitado. Si en ese escenario el gobierno cuidara lo cualitativo, por ejemplo, la seguridad, la austeridad en su gasto, la calidad de la educación y la honestidad, avanzaría mucho. Si ni siquiera logra progreso tangible en estos campos, va a causar que los efectos de la falta de crecimiento se magnifiquen peligrosamente. Los resultados los veremos pronto.

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SECUESTROS E INSEGURIDAD PÚBLICA

por Laura Itzel Castillo, secretaria de Asentamientos Humanos y Vivienda del gobierno legítimo de México
(publicado en El Gráfico el 6 de agosto de 200 8)


Bien dijo Emilio Álvarez Icaza, presidente de la Comisión de Derechos Humanos del DF: a quien pierde a la pareja se le llama viuda(o). A quien pierde a los progenitores se le dice huérfana(o). Pero no existen palabras para nombrar a quien ha perdido una hija(o).

El dolor de los padres de las víctimas del News Divine es el mismo del empresario Alejandro Martí, cuyo hijo Fernando, de 14 años, fue asesinado por sus secuestradores, no obstante que la familia había entregado ya el dinero del rescate.

En ambos casos observamos policías culpables. En el primero, los presuntos agentes del orden (preventivos) provocaron la tragedia al actuar con negligencia criminal. En el segundo, efectivos judiciales se convirtieron en secuestradores y asesinos.

A partir del News Divine el gobierno del Distrito Federal ofreció reestructurar a fondo las corporaciones de seguridad y replantear por completo su política en materia de seguridad pública. Ahora, con esta nueva tragedia, actuó rápido y detuvo a varios policías presuntamente implicados en el rapto y asesinato del menor. Todos ellos, se dice, formarían parte de la banda de La Flor, conocida así porque deja un crisantemo amarillo al lado de los cadáveres de sus víctimas.

El GDF anunció la suspensión de retenes policiacos en la ciudad, excepto el alcoholímetro, porque fue precisamente en un falso retén en el que el joven Fernando, su chofer Jorge Palma Lemus, de 61 años, y el guardaespaldas Cristian Salmones Flores, de 25 años, fueron plagiados. Hoy los tres están muertos.

La supresión de retenes es correcta porque la disyuntiva del ciudadano es difícil: si se para pueden ser secuestradores, pero si sigue adelante corre el riesgo de ser baleado y perder la vida, como ya ha ocurrido en otras partes del país, con soldados y policías federales, que tienen la orden de disparar.

El problema de la inseguridad pública es nacional, pero a nivel federal las respuestas son las mismas, una y otra vez. Por eso llama la atención la propuesta del DF. El eje rector del cambio sería una red ciudadana de 80 mil personas, que podría llagar a 300 mil, para verificar la tarea de las corporaciones policiales.

Este concepto rompe por completo con el origen de los cuerpos de seguridad en México: la protección de los poderosos, en detrimento del ciudadano. Antes, las diversas policías actuaban en función de los intereses de los gobernantes; hoy, en su mayoría, están al servicio del crimen organizado. Aterrador, ¿no?

Sin embargo, el problema de la inseguridad pública no se circunscribe a las policías. La razón de fondo se localiza en las erradas políticas económicas implementadas en el país desde hace 26 años. Esto ha derivado no en un Estado ineficaz, como plantean algunos analistas, sino en un Estado fallido. Tal es la magnitud de la bronca.

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AL PRIMER SEMESTRE DE 2008, LAS DEVOLUCIONES DE IMPUESTOS A LAS GRANDES EMPRESAS FUERON DE 93 MIL 615 MILLONES DE PESOS; EN CAMBIO, LA CANASTA BÁSICA AUMENTÓ 11%; LA PÉRDIDA EN EL PODER ADQUISITIVO ES YA DE 39%

por Mario di Costanzo, secretario de la Hacienda Pública del gobierno legítimo de México

De acuerdo con datos publicados en el último Informe Trimestral de las Finanzas Públicas, se observa que los ingresos totales del Sector Público fueron de 1 billón 363 mil 66.2 millones de pesos, cifra que representa ingresos adicionales a lo programado originalmente por 47 mil 192 millones de pesos.


Este comportamiento se explica fundamentalmente por los diferentes derechos que paga PEMEX, derivados de su actividad petrolera, los cuales ascendieron a 491 mil 790.2 millones de pesos, y que representaron 36% de los ingresos totales del Sector Público.


Cabe señalar que los derechos que paga Pemex fueron superiores en 204 mil 615 millones de pesos a los previstos originalmente en la Ley de Ingresos para 2008.


De esta manera, si consideramos los impuestos y derechos que Pemex paga al fisco y le añadimos los ingresos propios de esta paraestatal, que ascendieron a 80 mil 808 millones de pesos, se puede concluir que durante el primer semestre del año, 42% de los ingresos del Sector Público fueron generados por Petróleos Mexicanos.


En contrapartida, el Impuesto Sobre la Renta (ISR) y el Impuesto Empresarial a Tasa Única (IETU), registraron un avance inferior a lo programado, ya que en conjunto se ubicaron 17 mil millones de pesos por debajo de lo programado en la Ley de Ingresos.

No obstante la menor recaudación del ISR y del IETU, se observa que las devoluciones de impuestos que se realizan principalmente a las grandes empresas ascendieron a 93 mil 613.5 millones de pesos, de los cuales 9 mil 604 millones de pesos fueron devoluciones por concepto del ISR y 81 mil 528.3 millones de pesos, por concepto del Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA).

De esta manera, es pertinente señalar que la devolución de impuestos efectuada principalmente a las grandes empresas por concepto del IVA fue equivalente a la totalidad de los ingresos propios de Pemex durante el primer semestre del año.


Por su parte, las devoluciones de impuestos por concepto del ISR durante el primer semestre del año, fueron equivalentes a lo que se erogará en el Programa para la Atención a los Adultos Mayores de 70 años, en las Zonas Rurales, que coordina Sedesol y que contó con una asignación total de 9 mil 916.4 millones de pesos.

Finalmente, es conveniente señalar que los créditos fiscales irrecuperables, mismos que son los impuestos que dejan de ingresar a las arcas nacionales, por haber perdido juicios el Sistema de Administración Tributaria (SAT), registraron un incremento de 10 mil 849 millones de pesos, para ubicarse en 142 mil 248 millones de pesos, cifra que representa el presupuesto ejercido en el primer semestre, por las secretarías de Educación Pública (83,060 mdp), Salud (23,100 mdp), Desarrollo Social (22,639 mdp) y Seguridad Pública (6,672 mdp) en conjunto. Una asignación total de 9 mil 916.4 millones de pesos

Al mismo tiempo que mediante estas devoluciones millones de pesos fluyen hacia los grandes empresarios, la situación de la mauyoría de la población se agrava.

De acuerdo con datos obtenidos por la Secretaría de la Hacienda Pública del Gobierno Legitimo de México, se observa que durante los primeros 7 meses del presente año, el precio de 42 productos que componen la canasta básica registró un incremento de 11%, con lo que el poder adquisitivo del salario mínimo durante la presente administración ha registrado una pérdida acumulada que asciende a 39% y que se acentuará durante los próximos meses, debido al incremento en los precios de prácticamente la totalidad de los energéticos, afectando con ello aún más el nivel de vida de toda la población.

De acuerdo con información publicada por la Procuraduría Federal del Consumidor, se observa que, en diciembre de 2006, el costo de una canasta básica de 42 productos se ubicó en 818.44 pesos, lo que significa que una persona que percibiera el salario mínimo tenía que destinar 134.81 horas de trabajo, es decir 16.8 días de trabajo (en jornadas de 8 horas), para adquirir estos productos, mientras que para el mes de julio del presente año, la misma persona tiene que destinar 187.7 horas de trabajo, es decir 23.4 días de trabajo (en jornadas de 8 horas) para adquirir la misma canasta para su sustento.

Más aún, tan sólo en lo que va de este año, el costo de la canasta referida pasó de 1,104.63 pesos en enero de este año, a 1,230.83 pesos al último día de julio, esto es, un incremento del 11.4 %, es decir que mientras que en enero del presente año una persona que percibe un salario mínimo tenía que destinar 168.13 horas de trabajo para adquirirla, para julio tenía que dedicarle 187.7 horas, lo que muestra claramente la pérdida de 11.4% en su poder adquisitivo, solamente durante los primeros 7 meses del presente año.

Así, por ejemplo, entre enero y julio del presente año, productos absolutamente básicos como el frijol han registrado incrementos de 17.65%, al pasar el costo de un kilogramo de 17 pesos en enero a 20 pesos en julio, o bien la bolsa de 500 grs de lenteja que pasó de 8 pesos a 9.10 pesos, o el arroz que se incrementó en 63.79% al pasar de 10.99 a 18.0 pesos el costo por kilogramo.

Lo mismo ha sucedido con el pan de caja Bimbo, que pasó de 21.10 a 22.50, es decir un incremento de 6.6%, o el pollo entero que pasó de 25.30 a 30.0, lo que implicó un incremento de 18.58%.

En esta misma situación se encuentra el huevo, que pasó de 15.99 a 17.90 la caja con 12 huevos, lo que significa un incremento de 11.9%, o el aceite de cocina que registró un incremento de 50.9% al pasar el costo de un litro en enero de este año de 25.50 a 38.50 al mes de julio.

Cabe destacar que durante los últimos 19 meses el costo de estos productos básicos han registrado incrementos históricos: un kilogramo de frijol costaba 9.60 pesos en diciembre de 2006, y al mes de julio del 2008 su costo es de 20 pesos, es decir 108% más, o bien el huevo que pasó de 9.96 pesos la caja con 12 piezas a 17.90, lo que implica un incremento de 79.7%.

Llaman la atención casos como la lenteja, cuyo incremento ha sido de 127% al pasar el costo de la bolsa de 500 grs de 4 pesos en enero del 2006 a 9.10 pesos en julio de 2008.

Por su parte, el pan de caja Bimbo pasó de 13.20 pesos la bolsa de 680 grs a 22.50 pesos, lo que implica un incremento de 70.45%

Cabe señalar que el repunte en el crecimiento de los precios y en especial en el caso de los alimentos, afectan mucho más a las personas de bajos ingresos, ya que de acuerdo con la última encuesta de ingreso-gasto, llevada a cabo por el INEGI, los mexicanos destinan en promedio 30% de su ingreso para adquirir alimentos, 18% de éste para transporte, 15% para educación, entre otros.

Finalmente, los datos muestran el nulo impacto que tuvo el “supuesto congelamiento de precios” anunciado por las autoridades el pasado 17 de junio del presente año, ya que, de acuerdo con lo reportado por la Profeco, durante esa semana el costo de la canasta básica referida se ubicó en 1,183.76 pesos y casi un mes y medio después, es decir al 30 de julio, su costo ascendió a 1,230.83 pesos, lo que ha significado un incremento de casi 4% a partir del anuncio del congelamiento de precios en artículos básicos.

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EL USO DE ESTE SERVICIO DE NOTICIAS ES ABSOLUTAMENTE GRATUITO Y AMPLIAMENTE PERMITIDO. PEDIMOS SOLAMENTE QUE EN TODOS LOS CASOS SE CITE A Servicio de Noticias ISA COMO LA FUENTE INFORMATIVA ORIGINAL Y NOS REPORTEN A NUESTROS CORREOS ELECTRÓNICOS SU UTILIZACIÓN A FIN DE PODER EVALUAR EL ALCANCE DE ESTE ESFUERZO INFORMATIVO.

1525 COHA Report, The “Bridge” in the Coup: the IRI in Venezuela, 5 de agosto de 2008

Publicado en Análisis, Boletines informativos by octavioislas en Agosto 6th, 2008

The “Bridge” in the Coup: the IRI in Venezuela

Senator McCain’shands onchairmanship; IRI President calls organization thebridgein April 11, 2002 coup
NED and IRI exert conservative influence in Venezuela
The Bush Administration’s limited commitment to democratic legitimacy

Yesterday morning, following a massive protest in Washington, D.C., George Bush resigned from his post as President of the United States of America. Though several major media outlets have claimed the resignation was a response to the public’s call for his resignation, it is quickly becoming apparent that the situation was much more complex. It appears that several high-ranking military officials defected from the President’s camp, cornering him in the White House and essentially intimidating him into resignation. In a surprising twist of events, one of the first groups to recognize the ostensible coup was a Chinese NGO, the International Political Institute, whose President congratulated Americans, saying, “Last night, led by every sector of civil society, the American people rose up to defend democracy in their country. Americans were provoked into action as a result of systematic rights violations by the government of George W. Bush.”

Since the momentous events described above, it has been confirmed that the Chinese NGO played an integral role in the development of the opposition parties that set the scene for the overthrow of the president. Over the past several years, the organization has spent nearly $3 million funding political “training clinics,” almost exclusively for opposition groups, as well as political party-building activities. Americans now find themselves wondering whether they should view the removal of the unpopular president as a foreign blessing or a sovereignty-smashing curse.

Of course, this did not actually happen. But what if it had? Imagine the outrage of the American people and the confusion resulting from a flood of unverifiable and often conflicting stories surrounding a would-be coup. Would we tolerate this infringement of our nation’s sovereignty? One certainly hopes not. Yet on April 11th, 2002, the above scenario of events actually happened in Venezuela, apparently with the aid (or at least the indirect approval) of the United States government under the auspices of the International Republican Institute (IRI) and its financial source, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). An embarrassing example of Washington’s penchant for imperial underhandedness and the utilization of covert funding to advance cold war goals, the 2002 coup was cited as “the most damaging occurrence in the history of the International Republican Institute” by a former IRI staff member.

A Tale of Two Stories: April 11th, 2002
The exact sequence of events that occurred on April 11th is still relatively unclear despite the insight provided by the six years that have passed as well as the results of several investigations launched by both the Venezuelan Government and the United States. However, it has become clear that the original matter-of-fact description of the peaceful resignation of Chávez released by Washington was contrived and inaccurate. The official statements of the White House, the State Department and the U.S. Embassy in Caracas all claimed that Chávez’s antagonistic policies provoked a peaceful demonstration that turned violent when the president encouraged his supporters to open fire on protestors. The statement commended the Venezuelan military for its refusal to fire upon its citizens. After an interim government headed by businessman Pedro Carmona was quickly installed, the United States became one of the first of a minute number of nations to recognize the new government. The IRI was quick to support the same story, with its then-President George Folsom commending the anti-government protestors: “Last night, led by every sector of civil society, the Venezuelan people rose up to defend democracy in their country.”

However, it soon became apparent that this “official” version of events was riddled with holes. There were indeed two protests that day. The first was a pro-Chávez protest taking place outsides Miraflores, the presidential palace. The other was a combination of anti-government protestors and supporters of a strike called by Venezuela’s main trade union confederation, the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV), and Fedecámaras, composed of the chambers of commerce in twelve basic trade groups. More than 100,000 Venezuelans had gathered at the headquarters of Petróleo de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, to protest Chávez’s dismissal of several high-level officials. The organizers of this protest unexpectedly decided to re-route the protest towards Miraflores, endangering members of both the pro- and anti-government protests due to the potential for violence between the two groups.

The Mayor of Caracas pleaded with the leader of the anti-government march, Rear Admiral Carlos Molina Tamayo, urging him to halt the march on Miraflores, but his desperate request fell on deaf ears. Though Tamayo and the former president of the PDVSA, General Guaicaipuro Lameda, eventually called off the march on the palace, it was too late. The clash that followed involved several groups including the metropolitan police force, the Presidential Guard and pro- and anti-government protestors. Shots rained down upon the demonstrators from surrounding buildings, killing twenty people and injuring more than one hundred. Disturbing video footage of the violence captured by Venevisión, a Venezuelan TV news station, showed a group of pro-Chávez demonstrators firing from a bridge at Puente Llaguno with a voiceover claiming that the demonstrators were firing upon innocent opposition marchers. However, the man responsible for the video, Luis Alfonso Fernández, later told the newspaper Panorama (31 August 2003) that “in reality, that day I did not see the Chávez supporters firing at the opposition march.” Apparently, the Venevisión video had been cropped and the voiceover was intentionally misleading; footage captured by an amateur cameraman showed that the only thing on the street below the bridge was an armored military vehicle that had previously been firing at the protestors on the bridge. The Venevisión film that later won a Spanish award for journalistic excellence was only one part of the day’s deception.

Meanwhile, inside Miraflores, several high-ranking military leaders handed Chávez an ultimatum. Early on April 12th, General-in-Chief Lucas Rincón announced that Chávez had resigned after dismissing his cabinet. Opposition forces named Fedecámaras chief Pedro Carmona as interim president and promised new elections in the near future.

The View from the White House
As previously stated, the Bush administration proclaimed the turnover a victory for democracy and a promising development for Venezuela’s future. However, President Hugo Chávez had been popularly elected twice (in 1998 and 2000) and only de-throned by what can certainly be classified as an illegal military coup seeking an extra-constitutional change of authority. Venezuela’s supposedly promising future was further scarred by the actions of the Carmona administration in the days immediately following its installment. In his first act as president on April 12th, Carmona issued a decree that dissolved the National Assembly, the Supreme Court, the Public Defender’s Office, the Attorney General, the Constitution, and the 49 laws Chávez had passed in December, 2001. On April 13th, the U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela sent a message to the White House confirming the detention of several members of Chávez’s party, Movimiento V República (MVR). U.S. Ambassador Shapiro’s message said, “We do not know what charges, if any, have been filed against them.” After a mere twenty-four hours in power, the Carmona administration had effectively eliminated almost all of Venezuela’s democratic institutions.

The White House was silent on Carmona’s truly astonishing and entirely anti-democratic performance, failing to condemn the human rights violations and the breach of democratic norms being perpetrated at the hands of the Washington-backed rump administration. However, back in Venezuela, Carmona’s support within the military faction that had installed him began to wane—a trend hastened by the widespread uprising of pro-Chávez demonstrators that took to the streets following the coup. Violence between demonstrators and the metro police triggered by the coup would claim the lives of more than sixty Venezuelans. The Venezuelan media, so active during the coup itself, now fell silent, neglecting to acknowledge the rampant violence that had taken over the streets since the coup or the much larger counter-coup that was now occurring.

Only 48 hours after the coup began, the loyal presidential guard retook the palace with the support of hundreds of thousands of pro-Chávez demonstrators. After reinstating the cabinet members that had been dismissed by the coup leaders, Chávez was freed and returned to the presidency. A CIA commentary issued early on April 14th recognized the “resignation” of Pedro Carmona, claiming that “[he] was operating without a legal framework and ruling by decree—a move condemned by many regional leaders and the international community.” In a matter of hours, Washington had completely reversed its public position on the events in Venezuela, particularly because of the condemnation by several Latin American leaders who happened to be meeting at the time.

As the chaos created by the failed coup subsided, investigations into the months leading up to the attempt and its plotting began. Their findings revealed a disturbing sequence of U.S. interference in the affairs of a sovereign nation, though U.S. diplomat and foreign service officer Lino Gutierrez claimed that, “The United States did not participate in, inspire, encourage, foment, wink at, nod at, close its eyes to, or in any way leave the impression that it would support a coup of any kind in Venezuela. The record is crystal clear…” Unfortunately, history would not look so favorably upon Washington’s activities in Venezuela.

The Coup: Spontaneous Act or Premeditated Conspiracy?
The question of responsibility for the deaths on April 11th is a complicated one. Obviously, the opposition claims Hugo Chávez is to blame, alleging that he ordered the police to fire upon the innocent protestors in the streets. However, investigations have proven that even the violence may have been planned, and may not necessarily have been a result of the chaos of the coup. In her pro-Chávez book, The Chávez Code, Eva Golinger claims that the night before the coup, ten high-ranking military officers contacted CNN reporter Otto Neustald, requesting that he record a prepared statement by Vice Admiral Héctor Ramierez Pérez to be broadcasted at a later hour. Golinger says that the announcement denounced the massacre of innocent civilians at the hands of President Chávez. It called for a military insurrection, which would result in the death of six Venezuelans, in response to the government’s violence. Neustald later took part in a forum on journalism at the Bicentennial University of Aragua in Venezula, where he said,
On the 10th at night they called me on the telephone and said, Otto, tomorrow the 11th there will be a video of Chávez, the march will
go toward the presidential palace, there will be deaths and then 20 military officials of high rank will appear and pronounce themselves against the government of Chávez, and will request his resignation.
(Golinger 69)

There are other indications that the coup was not only premeditated but also that Washington knew that it was coming. Several intelligence assessments in the month prior to the coup indicated some sort of political uprising might occur. One such report was a Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (SEIB) sent to nearly 200 members of the Department of State that described the mounting opposition to the government but claimed that the fractionalization of opposition parties would still prevent a successful coup. At this time, the IRI, operating under a large grant from the NED, was working to strengthen political parties in Venezuela, directly addressing the CIA’s “concern.” A March 5th cable from the U.S. Embassy in Caracas to several offices in Washington commended an accord among the opposition groups that “[represented] an important step for the opposition, which [had] been quick to condemn Chávez but had so far offered no vision of its own.” At the time, the IRI was conducting training programs with opposition parties specifically aimed at identifying party platforms and images. Aside from showing a clear U.S. appreciation for the growing opposition, the cable also reveals that the IRI had targeted its programs to enhance those areas the U.S. government identified as obstacles to the opposition’s chance to take power. On April 6th, an SEIB entitled “Conditions Ripening for Coup Attempt” revealed a coup in the making in Venezuela, claiming, “Dissident military factions…are stepping up efforts to organize a coup against President Chávez, possibly as early as this month…To provoke military action, the plotters may try to exploit unrest stemming from opposition demonstrations slated for later this month…”

Even though U.S. officials were aware of the potential coup, the Reagan era instrument, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) continued to fund opposition movements, including the IRI’s activities—perhaps even increasing such funding—and no threats to cut U.S. funding to pro-coup entities were ever made. Rather than discouraging the coup that would almost certainly lead to chaos and violence, the IRI seemed to be concentrating its efforts on strengthening the opposition and preparing for a Venezuela without Hugo Chávez.

Bridge Over Troubled Water: The Role of the IRI in Venezuela
Hours after the coup took place, IRI President George Folsom released a statement claiming, “The Institute has served as a bridge between the nation’s political parties and all civil society groups to help Venezuelans forge a new democratic future…” This statement later would prove to be an embarrassment and a liability for the IRI. NED President Carl Gershman chastised Folsom’s bold statement in a memo, saying, “By welcoming [the coup]—indeed, without any apparent reservations—you unnecessarily interjected IRI into the sensitive internal politics of Venezuela.” Those involved in the politics of Venezuela at the time would know the IRI’s role was much more significant than a simple commendation of the coup attempt. The IRI would later retract Folsom’s statement, but the damage had been done and suspicions were raised.

It is important to remember that the IRI at the time was chaired by the current Republican presidential nominee, Senator John McCain, who insists that, during his 13-year tenure in that position, the board has played a very active role in coordinating IRI activities (a claim that has been verified by a former IRI staff member). In 2000, the National Endowment for Democracy gave the IRI $50,000 for its program activities in Venezuela. The following year, the one leading up to the coup attempt, the NED would nearly sextuple its investment in the IRI’s Venezuela projects, furnishing the “democracy-building” organization with $340,000. Another grant was given by the NED in 2001 to the American Center for International Labor Solidarity (ACILS), which is linked to the AFL-CIO; the ACILS grant was for $154,375, a 250 percent increase from the $60,000 grant in 2000. The NED also provided a grant worth $210,000 to the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the Democratic Party equivalent of the IRI, to fund work with the social movement Momento de la Gente. By the end of 2001, NED funding for programs in Venezuela totaled nearly $880,000. It is important to note that the National Endowment for Democracy along with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) are almost entirely funded by taxpayer dollars. Between 2000 and 2006, Eva Golinger calculated that the NED and USAID had spent a combined $34 million in Venezuela “promoting democracy.” A report from an investigation conducted by the State Department at the request of Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) found that “during the six month period [November 2001-April 2002], NED, the [State] Department, and DOD provided training, institution building and other support programs totaling about $3.3 million to Venezuelan organizations and individuals, some of whom are understood to have been involved in the events of April 12-14.” The report found that NED funding for programs in Venezuela during that 6-month period totaled more than $2 million (compared to $200,000 the year before).

Promoting Democracy?”
In 2000, IRI programs focused funding on the Fundación Paticipación Juvenil (FPJ) promoting youth involvement in Venezuelan politics. However, 2001 saw the IRI shift its goal to a much more challenging one: “strengthening political parties” (which, in practice, would come to mean funding anti-Chávez groups). At that time, Venezuela was a country with a fractured political system. Having suffered from accusations of corruption and unfulfilled campaign promises, the two historically “major” parties, Acción Democratica (AD) and Partido Social Cristiano de Venezuela (COPEI), had fallen out of public favor; in fact, each only garnered single-digit support in the 1998 popular election that brought Hugo Chávez to power. Several other smaller parties participated in the elections, but all suffered from internal fragmentation and a lack of infrastructural stability. The goal of the IRI was to remedy this problem and formulate a strong, effective and integrated opposition.

The $340,000 NED grant to the IRI’s Venezuelan project for strengthening political parties almost exclusively funded training clinics for opposition parties including COPEI, AD, Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), Proyecto Venezuela, Unión por el Progreso, and Primero Justicia. Unión por el Progreso was the relatively new party formed by Francisco Arías Cárdenas, a former ally of Chávez who defected from the president’s ranks. In the 2000 presidential election held after the passage of the new constitution, Cárdenas ran against his former friend (Cárdenas won an impressive 38 percent of the votes though he was still defeated by Chávez). Primero Justicia was another new party that entered the political scene in 2000, winning several important races in the regional elections. A conservative party mostly comprised of young members, Proyecto Venezuela would replace AD and COPEI as the major opposition party in the nation; the funding and instruction provided by the IRI almost certainly played a significant role in the fledgling party’s rise to glory.

The training sessions sponsored by the IRI often brought in conservative politicians from the United States and elsewhere to tutor Venezuela’s opposition parties on how to develop a platform and connect with citizens. However, it is questionable if the IRI had the best interests of the Venezuelan people in mind. In the quarterly report from October to December of 2001, the IRI claimed it “has made a concerted effort to improve communications between political leaders in both the United States and Venezuela. This included hosting a briefing by Francisco Arias Cardenas in Washington, D.C. and meetings and communications with U.S. government policy makers.” Cárdenas, as previously mentioned, is now staunchly anti-Chávez; he was a somewhat suspect choice if the IRI had truly been committed to “improv[ing] communications” between the two nations, especially since he was not holding any office at the time. It is also worth noting that during this period Stanley Lucas, formerly the IRI’s Senior Program Officer in Venezuela, moved to the Strategic Planning team. Mr. Lucas would later become the hugely controversial program director in Haiti as well as a prime factor in the coup that ousted Haitian President Jean Bertrand Aristide. Though this overlap may indeed be coincidental, the IRI’s increased activity in both Haiti and Venezuela during the times leading up to the coups and the fact that Lucas was the IRI’s program director in both nations before their respective coup attempts are certainly a matter of concern.

During the last quarter of 2001, the IRI conducted meetings with a number of prominent political organizations and figures in Venezuela in order to discuss what resources it might provide to their political development. Some of these included Fransisco Arias Cárdenas and Jorge Garrido of Partido Unión, Caracas Mayor Alfredo Peña, Eduardo Fernandez of COPEI, Lewis Perez and Alfredo Coronil of Acción Democrática, and Carmen Beatriz Fernandez of Primero Justicia. All of the aforementioned groups were considered to be anti-Chávez, an all-too-frequent trend in exclusionary IRI activities in Venezuela.

During the first week of December, 2001, the IRI held a “Party Structure/Grassroots Development Training” clinic that was attended by several opposition parties, including the supporters of Alfredo Peña (who hoped to start his own political party), yet no pro-Chávez government officials were invited to attend. This seemed to be a rather unproductive and short-sighted approach considering that the president’s party, Movimiento V República (MVR), was a relatively new party itself (having been founded by Chávez about a decade earlier) and was faced with serious internal fractionalization issues. Was it really that MVR did not need the IRI’s help or was it that the IRI was unwilling to provide it to the man who was being considered by Washington as its ideological enemy?

That same quarter, the IRI also sponsored a meeting at the U.S. Department of State to discuss “the current political situation in Venezuela and appropriate State Department responses.” Attendees at the IRI meeting identified a “need for better communications with the Venezuelan press, which often times speaks negatively of the United States policy.” Unfortunately, at the time the IRI came to this conclusion, its intervention in Venezuelan politics was creating a good supply of new fodder for anti-U.S. media sentiments.

The first quarter of 2002 was described by the IRI as a “particularly turbulent” time in Venezuela. From the IRI perspective, the $340,000 invested in the country was being well spent: “As Chavez became more aggressive, a once polarized and fragmented opposition was becoming more unified.” In its quarterly report, the IRI blames the Chávez administration for the growing political tension in Venezuela, claiming the “increasing ungovernability and intimidation by the Chavez government against civil society groups.” The goal of IRI programs during this period was to “prepare [the parties] for the challenges ahead.” The IRI also met several times with members of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) in a “new attempt to get to know party leaders who have publicly split with the Chavez coalition government.” Felipe Mujica, deputy of MAS, was one of the attendees of the March 14 meeting of political opposition members hosted by the IRI in Washington.

While truly promoting democracy is a noble goal, the actions of the IRI leading up to the attempted coup in 2002 were far from democratic. Its aim was not democratic participation by all players in Venezuela, but rather only those that supported the goals and aims of the right wing IRI and NED. The IRI’s practice of targeting opposition movements for training and funding was clearly a biased and politically motivated attempt to interfere in Venezuelan politics.

IRI Memorandum
On April 22, 2002, the IRI dispatched two people to assess the current political situation in Venezuela and investigate the events of April 11. The inquiry revealed “there was a popular uprising that was betrayed by a lack of leadership. Political parties were absent from these developments and civil society and the business sector were not prepared to govern the country.” These baseless statements were an obvious attempt by the IRI to skew public perception in its favor. The first act of the new government was unquestionably undemocratic and arguably dictatorial.

The recon trip consisted mostly of meetings with opposition leaders to gather their opinions on the coup attempt. The first of these was with Aurelio Concheso, President of CEDICE, an NED grantee. The IRI reported Concheso’s claim that, “Contrary to what is widely perceived as premeditated ‘removal’ [of Chávez] from office, Concheso felt that the April 11 events were spontaneous.” But regardless of what opposition leaders might claim or want the U.S. to believe, the coup was certainly not spontaneous.

The IRI reported that the opposition felt the coup had been “kidnapped” by a “small group” that had “de-legitimized” what began as a popular uprising. Unfortunately for this theory, the march that was likely the only thing resembling “popular uprising” was organized by members of the aforementioned “small group.” Had the march not been re-routed towards Miraflores, upon the decision of the same “small group,” it is unlikely there would have been a coup at all. One of the men with whom the IRI team met, former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, called the coup “a lost opportunity for Venezuela.” Antonio Herrera, another man with whom the IRI met, expressed his regret at the “severe lack of leadership in the opposition.” Dr. Ivan Marcano Lopez was cited in the report as claiming that Chávez was illegally holding office since he had returned to his position without any oath. Eduardo Fernandez, former presidential candidate for COPEI and “old friend of IRI” claimed he was “surprised by [Pedro Carmona’s] decision to dissolve the Congress and disband the Supreme Court” and “believes these decisions were not Carmona’s and that he was forced to make them…” The IRI team also met with two members of the media; the report commends the bravery of journalists in covering the coup violence despite Chávez’s attempts at censorship. What the report fails to mention is that the violence that took place after the coup, which resulted in more casualties than the coup itself, was not even covered by the very same “brave” press outlets. The team met with several other representatives of Chávez opponents; in fact, it seems the only major political group the team did not meet with was the party of Hugo Chávez. How can a thorough investigation of a coup attempt not include the victim? The exclusion of any pro-Chávez opinion memorandum is yet another example of the exclusionary nature of the IRI’s opposition-based policies in Venezuela.

Law of the Land
In the years following the coup attempt, one point of conflict between the United States and Venezuela arose over the fate of María Corina Machado, founder of the allegedly non-partisan “electoral group,” Súmate. Machado and Alejandro Plaz, another Súmate leader, were prosecuted by the Venezuelan government for “conspiracy against the republican form of the nation,” a charge resulting from Súmate’s acceptance of a $53,000 from the NED. Ms. Machado was also found to have signed the “Carmona Decree,” which eliminated most of Venezuela’s democratic institutions, though she later claimed that she thought she had written her name on a sign-in sheet the presidential palace. The significance of the Súmate trial is the charge being brought against the defendants, namely their receipt of a foreign donation, an activity prohibited by Venezuela’s Ley de Partidos Politicos, Reuniones Públicos y Manifestaciones (Political Party Law; 1965). Article 25 contains a clause stating that parties “may not accept donations or subsidiesfrom foreign companiesor from foreign governments or organizations.” By taking the NED grant, the leaders of Súmate clearly violated this law. Thus, by providing resources to several political parties, the IRI encouraged the opposition groups it funded to violate Venezuelan law, as well, raising questions of whether or not the organization can truly claim to be “promoting democracy.”

The Path to Democracy in Latin America
By no means was the IRI alone in its interference in Venezuelan politics. In fact, it was joined by several other NED grantees and perhaps even by factions of the U.S. government. However, the IRI was the main grantee in Venezuela and its connections to Republican Party presidential nominee John McCain are worrisome, especially given McCain’s claims regarding his “hands-on” position as Chairman of the Board of the organization. Perhaps more concerning is the direction “democracy building” operations have taken in Latin America as exemplified by the events that took place in Venezuela in 2002. A former IRI employee commented that for employees of democracy-promoting organizations like the IRI, belief in democracy is almost a “religious experience.” It is a tribute to our own country’s political system that leads these people to want to share democracy with other nations. However, cases like Venezuela show a darker side to democracy-building, one featuring idealistic goals that have been corrupted by the pursuit of self-serving business interests or by acute government rivalries.

Hugo Chávez is certainly not a pundit of equality and justice, however he is a popularly elected leader who heads a government with a Congress that theoretically has the power to keep him in check. Surely the Venezuelan government certainly has flaws, but it is a democracy regardless of whether the government, the NED and the IRI consider it one. By funding and training only opposition parties, the IRI has undoubtedly interfered in the Venezuelan political system, thus violating one of the most important international norms of behavior: a respect for the sovereignty of other nations. This norm may be cast aside occasionally in times of mass murder, mass violence, and mass poverty, but Venezuela most definitely did not fit any of these examples of grave human suffering. The coup attempt in Venezuela, which was permitted by and arguably encouraged by the United States, was an abject failure, not only because it undermined democracy, but also because it destabilized an already tumultuous region. When the United States supports such biased endeavors, it delegitimizes the noble goal of promoting democracy abroad. It is not within the jurisdiction of the IRI or the NED or even the US government to decide what constitutes a “true democracy.” In the absence of mass persecution and suffering, respect for sovereignty deserves to be upheld.

Work Cited:
Golinger, Eva. The Chavez Code; Cracking US Intervention in Venezuela. Northampton: Olive Branch P, 2006.

This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Sarah Hamburger
August 5th, 2008

1517 COHA Report, A Change of Fortune: Remittances to Mexico Fall, Weakening Washington’s Diplomatic Clout

Publicado en Análisis, Periodismo y ciberperiodismo, opinión pública by octavioislas en Agosto 2nd, 2008

A Change of Fortune: Remittances to Mexico Fall, Weakening Washington’s Diplomatic Clout

On July 30, the Mexican central bank reported that remittances coming from overseas nations—mainly the U.S.—have dropped 2.9 percent this year. This was the first decline since the practice began being accurately measured. In 2007, remittances flowing into Mexico reached an all time high of $23.98 billion, but Mexican officials recently predicted a decline this year of 1.5 to 2 percent as a result of the United States’ housing crisis and soaring food prices. Also contributing to the drop is the current crackdown on illegal immigration which has made it difficult for many Mexican nationals to gain entry across the border or find jobs in the United States.

The recent drop in remittances poses a major threat to the Mexican economy, as they are second only to oil as a source of foreign income. Remittances are important because they promote economic growth by allowing more citizens at home to engage in the formal economic sector, while simultaneously encouraging the use of formal financial services and participation in small-scale investment in the national economy. The decrease in remittances may also threaten United States diplomacy to a significant extent. In the past, Washington has used taxation of remittances as leverage for furthering U.S. interests when engaging with remittance-dependent nations in negotiations. If remittances fall steadily in the coming years, the United States may very well lose this bargaining tool.

According to the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), Mexico is the largest remittance-receiving country in Latin America, due in part to the more than 11 million Mexican nationals living in the states. The study also reported that 18 percent of Mexican adults consistently receive remittances (averaging about seven times per year, each with a value of $190). The majority of remittances (78 percent) are being utilized to pay for basic necessities such as food, medicine and housing. Women are twice as likely to receive remittances as men, with most recipients living on only moderate incomes and having limited education. The highest concentrations of Mexican remittance recipients in 2007 were in Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, San Luis Potosí and Zacatecas.

The drop in remittances is not surprising considering the recent economic downturn in the U.S. and how closely Mexico’s economy is tied to that of the United States. Families and businesses that depend on remittances for their livelihoods have also suffered due to the eight percent devaluation of the U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso. The future may be equally gloomy, as the central bank has predicted no significant growth of remittances in the coming year. The fact that Mexico is feeling the effects of the U.S. economic downturn is of concern to Mexican officials and only serves to underline the importance of the November U.S. presidential election to Mexico and the rest of Latin America.

This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Sarah Hamburger
July 31st, 2008

1514 COHA Report, The Failings of Chile’s Education System: Institutionalized Inequality and a Preference for the Affluent

Publicado en Análisis, Periodismo y ciberperiodismo, opinión pública by octavioislas en Julio 30th, 2008

The Failings of Chile’s Education System: Institutionalized Inequality and a Preference for the Affluent

While the structure of Chile’s elementary and secondary education has changed considerably since the demise of the Pinochet dictatorship, the Chilean system is currently undergoing intense scrutiny due to the recent mass student protests against President Bachelet’s proposed 2006 education policy, Ley General de Educación (LGE). This General Education bill promises to eliminate discriminatory admissions policies at Chile’s primary, secondary, and tertiary education levels, and establishes a National Education Council to further advance school autonomy away from state control. However, teachers and students continue to oppose the LGE for its failure to reform the government’s basic financial strategy in order to abet a healthier and more equitable educational system.

What President Bachelet Hoped to Accomplish
Chilean education offers inherently unequal opportunities for students from low-income families, who consistently experience sub-standard educational achievements as a result of an ongoing bias in favor of privatization measures. The government’s school voucher program has not only exacerbated the socioeconomic divide between public and private institutions, but has also ensured that wealthier students have access to quality education, which guarantees their advancement to universities and a choice of careers. Although President Bachelet’s educational reform is intended to alleviate certain discriminatory practices that prevent low-income students from entering institutions of higher learning, the continuation of Chile’s market-based strategy for school financing will almost certainly guarantee existing inequalities.

Reforming Chile’s Education System: The Bachelet Government involved in a Fretful Struggle

Elitism To Its Core
In 1973, the newly-installed General Pinochet dictatorship established a style of education management in which decisions regarding 80 percent of Chilean schools were determined by the central government in such categories as educational finance, teacher salaries, employment, and curriculum standards.1 However, in the aftermath of the 1980s financial crisis, two important reforms changed the nature of Chile’s education system. The first of these revisions involved the decentralization of education, which transferred the management of local schools to municipal governments. Three types of schools were established during this transition: municipal, government-funded public schools; private schools subsidized by the government; and private, fee-paying schools. Yet, despite the reduced federal intervention in local education institutions, Chile’s decentralization measure resulted in an 18% drop in federal spending on education throughout the 1980s.2 Due to this substantial reduction in government support, municipal governments began to fund these institutions from provincial budgets. This new funding procedure subsequently triggered a divide in the quality of education between wealthier municipalities, which could afford to extend a substantial part of their budget toward schools, and poorer municipalities, which suffered the consequences of a fast withdrawal of federal funding.

Privatization of the school system in Chile represents the second major reform. This important piece of legislation established a voucher-type government subsidy available for use in both private and public municipal schools, which are distributed in numbers directly proportional to the size of a school’s enrollment. Government-provided vouchers have encouraged private schools to enter the education marketplace in order to compete for government funding alongside municipal educational institutions. By establishing market competition, the privatization policy was intended to “weed out” inefficient and disorganized schools as students, aided by readily-available voucher subsidies, gravitated toward institutions that would provide a better education. Studies conducted after the introduction of school vouchers noted a relative boom in private education, with a major increase in the number of for-profit schools as well as student enrollment in these schools.3 For example, prior to the 1980 privatization reform, approximately 80 percent of Chilean students attended public schools,4 whereas data following the reform shows a 22 percent decrease in public school enrollment by 1997. In this same period of time, private school student rosters rose to over 40 percent.5 In addition to providing monetary incentive for schools to improve their quality of education, the privatization reforms served to equalize educational opportunities for lower income students, who ordinarily could not afford the exorbitant school fees demanded by privately-funded educational institutions.

The Problem with Privatization
Despite the government’s ostensible goal in equalizing the quality of education for students across economic lines, three discernible types of inequalities have emerged in its wake: stratification and inequality in access to private education, substantial differences in the quality of education received, and unequal opportunities for students pursuing higher education.

The introduction of education vouchers has produced an increasingly stratified school system in Chile on the basis of socioeconomic status. Unrestricted school choice in Chile has exacerbated stratification within the Chilean school system rather than provide more opportunities for low-income students to access better schools. Although such students now have the ability to apply to private institutions, two factors have prevented them from gaining equitable access to these schools. Low-income students suffer from a lack of information concerning school choice. They also rarely have the necessary means of transportation to attend private schools in urban areas.6 Stanford’s Martin Carnoy, in his article, National Voucher Plans in Chile and Sweden, attests that despite the equal opportunity vouchers, “Less-educated families are less able to search out and use information on the quality of educational alternatives…Because wealthier parents transport their children to a wider range of schools locations, the same voucher for all means more restricted access for the poor.”7

As a result of these educational vouchers, the school system has become increasingly stratified due to “creaming,” in which private institutions have enacted selective admission policies designed to accept only the “cream of the crop.” These discriminatory policies have resulted in a sorting effect, in which higher income students have migrated in large numbers to subsidized fee-based private schools, while lower-income students remain entrapped in municipal public schools.8 A statistical study conducted by Gregory Elacqua, professor and researcher at the School of Government at Adolfo Ibañes University, found in 2003 that public schools are more likely to accept disadvantaged student populations in comparison to private institutions. Elacqua’s study concludes that private subsidized schools serve an average of 7 percent less disadvantaged students than municipal schools. Catholic voucher schools were found to be even more discriminatory, admitting an average of 12 percent less vulnerable students than public schools.9 This finding is consistent with studies by other researchers, such as Chang-Tai Hsieh and Miguel Urquiola, and Varun Guari in his book, School Choice in Chile: Two Decades of Educational Reform (1998). As private school enrollment is routinely filled by high-income students, a tendency exists to push low-income students to gravitate toward poorly-financed municipal public schools. A recent study of municipal public school enrollment by Ann Matear, professor of Latin American Studies at the University of Portsmouth, showed that 80.9 percent and 72.1 percent of Chile’s primary and secondary public school populations respectively, were from the lowest five income deciles in the country.10 Creaming continues to be a persistent problem within Chile’s school system. Voucher subsidies have created a sorting effect within the education system rather than extend opportunities to poorer student populations.

Purchasing a Quality Education
In addition to the increased stratification of schools along economic lines, fee-based private schools have other distinct advantages over government-subsidized schools. The high income levels of its student populations afford fee-based private schools the ability to maintain highly-qualified teachers and provide extra resources, while government-funded institutions normally must settle for inadequate supplies and inferior teachers. Chang-Tai Hsieh and Miguel Urquiola’s 2006 study entitled, “The Effects of Generalized School Choice and Stratification,” states that,

[The] transfer of students [to private schools] was accompanied by a large allocation
of resources towards private schools…the 20 percentage point enrollment shift means that a corresponding percentage of the Ministry of Education’s school-related operation expenditures were reallocated to private schools.

The study cites a 20 percent drop in the number of public school teachers,11 demonstrating the considerable resource inequality between public and private institutions.

The Nuts and Bolts of the Educational Experience
The disproportionate supply of teachers and resources in Chile’s schools has adversely affected the quality of education received in municipal public schools. Researchers have explored the relative differences in teaching outcomes through the use of SIMCE test results (see Carnoy 1998, Mizala and Romaguera 2000, Hsieh and Urquiola 2006, Matear 2006). SIMCE, the national assessment system of learning outcomes, was developed in 1988 in order to monitor and refine education policies and set goals for improvement. Results from SIMCE show distinct differences in the average scores between private and public schools. While eighth grade test results from 2000 for public municipal schools showed an average test score of 60.5 (out of 100), subsidized private schools produced an increased score of 67. Fee-paying private schools had the best scores of the three, achieving an average score of 80, nearly 20 points above municipal scores.12 Private educational institutions have steadily maintained elevated test scores while municipal schools have failed to achieve significant improvement in SIMCE test results, supporting the notion that municipal schools have access to significantly poorer learning materials and inadequately trained teachers.

Despite the fact that the Chilean government increased subsidies and allocated additional funds toward public municipal schools through its Educational Quality Improvement Program (MECE) in the early 1990s, Ann Matear reiterates that, “children from well-off families who attend private schools learn most and achieve the highest scores, and…low-income children attending municipal or subsidized private schools present the lowest levels of educational performance.”13 Municipal school students continue to suffer from inadequate educational training for the SIMCE tests, driving these schools to take risky and questionable measures to improve their results in order to gain funding. For example, media exposure in June 2008 revealed that municipal schools attempted to skew the results of the 2007 SIMCE test by asking below-par students to remain home on the day of the test.14

As municipal schools experience increasing pressure to compete for funding through the 1980 privatization reform, they have taken rash measures to obtain the necessary financing for additional teachers and supplies. Low SIMCE scores show there is a desperate need to help municipal schools achieve better results. However, increased competition for funding may hurt, rather than help, these schools to provide a quality education.

The obvious inequality in teacher supply and student resources differentiates public from private education and reveals a direct correlation with the level of student achievement. A study conducted by Florencia Torche, associate director of the Center for the Study of Wealth and Inequality at Columbia University, showed that while 95 percent of children in the wealthiest income quintile completed secondary school in 2000, only 30 percent of children in the poorest income quintile completed the same level of education that year.15 This has important consequences for students attempting to gain entrance to Chilean universities. Research conducted by Matear indicates that universities typically accept a larger percentage of students from private institutions than from municipal public schools. For example, an analysis of student backgrounds at the Universidad de Chile, showed that 50.8 percent of the admitted students were educated in the elite private schools, while a mere 27 percent came from municipal institutions.16 Additionally, of the students attending Pontificia Universidad Catolica (PUC), the most prestigious university in Chile, over 70 percent came from private schools, 14.3 percent from subsidized private schools, and only 15.1 percent from municipal schools.17 These statistics show that low-income municipal students often do not have equal access to tertiary institutions due to the poor level of education offered by the rank-and-file of Chilean public schools.

Ley General de Educacion (LGE)
LGE is a reform package that includes many measures designed to regulate the effects of privatization, including the redistribution of government funds toward public schools and the creation of a Quality Assurance Agency to monitor any evidence of discriminatory selection processes within fee-based private schools and universities, as well as unequal test scores between high-income and low-income students. Other provisions of the LGE legislation set higher standards for persons wanting to open subsidized private schools, establish a National Education Council to replace the Superior Education Council created under Pinochet, and fix a four-year deadline for educational administrators to declare their institutions non-profit. Proponents of the LGE bill insist that these revisions will eventually curb the negative effects of privatization.

Student Leadership Speaks Out
Despite the best of intentions, the promotion of the LGE bill in 2006 sparked intense protests among Chile’s student and teacher populations. Students claim that privatization is the real enemy due to its failure to eradicate the profit-based nature of the education system. Despite President Bachelet’s commitment to eradicating Pinochet-era education policies (such as the Ley Orgánica Constitucional de Enseñanza (LOCE) which effectively decentralized schools), her recent LGE bill retains the major pillars of the old educational system. For instance, LGE does not include measures to discontinue government subsidies to private schools; instead, it preserves the structures that have allowed for unequal access to private institutions.

The president of the Student Federation of the Universidad de Chile (FECH) states, “The main point we want to express today is that we reject having the profit motive inserted into education on any level - elementary, high school, and in the university…education reform is the only means we have for solving the social problems in this country.” Students point out that there are no incentives for schools to provide a better education because both public and private schools receive equal subsidies. Therefore, profit motives defeat the purpose of the privatization reform in eliminating poor-performing schools through market policies.

More importantly, concerned students and teachers protest the lack of opportunities available to low-income families. By failing to revise the provision of subsidies to private schools, the Chilean government continues to undermine public education, which provides service to over 50 percent of Chile’s low-income student population. Low SIMCE scores and the inability to gain admission to higher education institutions have proven that Chile’s education system experiences structural problems due largely to privatization. President Bachelet’s LGE bill does not adequately address pressing issues regarding public education. While the General Education Law mandates the creation of a Quality Assurance Agency to oversee SIMCE standardized tests and regulate the performance of school administrators, this essentially conservative piece of legislation neglects to correct the root cause of the system’s problems: privatization.

The LGE and Inequality: Recommendations for Change
Despite student and faculty efforts to stall the forward movement of the LGE through Congress, the bill has already passed through the Chamber of Deputies and is currently on the Senate floor for a final vote. If ratified by that body, Chile will continue its lamentable tradition of inequality in the country’s educational institutions. As thousands of students continue to march against the contested LGE bill, it is clear that today’s pupils will not stand for the deplorable conditions that directly affect their, and their less fortunate counterparts’, futures. Many worry that the LGE measure does not do enough for Chile’s low-income students and will instead serve to maintain Pinochet’s creed of favoring those coming from wealthier backgrounds, while subjecting the poor to inferior learning standards.

In order to correct the current inequalities within the school system, the Bachelet government needs to reassess the structure of Chile’s education system and strive for a long-term overhaul of Pinochet-era divisions between rich and poor families. Chile’s education system is failing the students that need it the most. Rather than continue privatization, critics argue that Santiago should discontinue voucher subsidies to all private schools and instead redirect such funds to public education. This major reform would marshal badly needed monetary resources in order to better provide a quality education in public schools and help raise SIMCE scores. Free public education is an intrinsic human right, and Chilean authorities should be prepared to more effectively prioritize this essential public service to ensure a brighter future for the children of the country’s low income and entrenched poor populations.

1 Mizala and Romaguera. “School performance and Choice: The Chilean Experience.” Journal of Human Resources 35, no. 2 (2000) 394.
2 Carnoy, M. “National Voucher Plans in Chile and Sweden: Did Privatization Reforms make for Better Education?” Comparative Education Review 42, no. 3 (1998). 317-318.
3 Elacqua, Gregory. “Enrollment Practices in Response to Vouchers: Evidence from Chile.” National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education (NCSPE). (2006) 7.
4 Torche, Florencia. “Privatization Reform and Inequality of Educational Opportunity: The Case of Chile.” In Sociology of Education, Vol. 78 (2005) 322.
5 Mizala and Romaguera. 397.
6 Carnoy, 312-313.
7 Ibid, 312.
8 Torche, Florencia. (2005)
9 Elacqua, Gregory. “Enrollment Practices in response to Vouchers: Evidence from Chile.” 12.
10 Matear, Ann. “Barriers to Equitable Access: Higher Education Policy and Practice in Chile since 1990.” Higher Education Policy. 19 (2006)
11 Hsieh, C. and Urquiola, M. “The Effects of Generalized School Choice on Achievement and Stratification: Evidence from Chile’s Voucher Program.” Journal of Public Economics 90 (2006) 1481.
12 Mizala and Romaguera. 399.
13 Matear, Ann. “Barriers to Equitable Access: Higher Education Policy and Practice in Chile since 1990.”
14 Shadko, Leigh. “Chile Schools May Have Tried to Skew Test Results.” The Valparaiso Times, 05 June 2008. http://www.valparaisotimes.cl/content/view/382/388/.
15 Torche, Florencia. 321.
16 Matear, Ann. “Barriers to Equitable Access: Higher Education Policy and Practice in Chile since 1990.”
17 Ibid.

This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Andrea Arango
July 30th, 2008

1508 COHA Report, Obama On NAFTA: Name This “Change We Can Believe In”

Publicado en Análisis, Boletines informativos, Periodismo y ciberperiodismo, opinión pública by octavioislas en Julio 30th, 2008

Obama On NAFTA: Name This “Change We Can Believe In”

  • The truths and fictions surrounding Obama’s rhetoric on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and why getting back to basics is the real change America may be looking for

With the election season in full force, it is once again time for political squabbling to break out as candidates strategically move to the center in search of undecided voters. The transformation from being a primary candidate to presidential frontrunner already is profoundly affecting Barack Obama, who has softened his initially progressive rhetoric in order to galvanize skeptical independents. In doing so, he has been inviting criticism from the media regarding his apparently refashioned political rhetoric. This opens himself up to an abrupt transition that has damaged many promising Democratic candidates in the past. Specifically, Obama’s moderation in his policy concerning the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is drawing intense, mainly negative scrutiny from various directions.

Many of his admirers- both current and now former- are concerned that Obama’s increasingly elusive promises to “renegotiate” NAFTA will squash any prospects for constructive changes to the agreement. The question which still lingers is whether Obama seeks any, let alone comprehensive improvements in the increasingly controversial status of U.S.- Western Hemispheric policy, or whether he is just another time-honored and charismatic yet flip-flopping politician looking only to opportunistically gain votes.

The Interview With Fortune Magazine
If Obama had one opportunity to disprove all such criticism, his June 18 interview with Fortune Magazine was his chance. During the interview, Fortune journalist Nina Easton asked the Democratic presidential candidate if his position on free trade had changed since the primaries, when he described NAFTA as “devastating” and “a big mistake,” at the February 27 Democratic debate in Ohio. On that occasion, Obama asserted he would use “the hammer of a potential opt-out [of NAFTA] as leverage to ensure that we actually get labor and environmental standards that are enforced.” However, months later, during the Fortune Magazine interview, Obama renounced his past feelings, stating, “Sometimes during campaigns the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified,” which he agreed could apply to some of his NAFTA statements. Still, Obama maintained during the interview that he has never planned to amend NAFTA unilaterally, but “looks forward to a conversation with [Canadian Prime minister Stephen Harper and Mexican President Felipe Calderón].” Obama confirmed, “I’m a big believer in opening up dialogue and figuring out how we can make this work for all people.” Once again, without engaging in brazen flip-flopping, but still basically vacating his main point, Obama offered nebulous propositions for dealing with a contentious issue without outlining a firm plan for revising NAFTA. Progressives are becoming increasingly concerned over Obama’s ideological torques, anxious to learn which NAFTA revisions Obama will actually pursue if elected, and which ones will be discarded as “overheated” rhetoric.